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Analysts confused by Intel’s projections

by on25 June 2013

They just do not add up

Bernstein Research‘s Stacy Rasgon hit out at Intel’s earning projections claiming that they do not add up.

Rasgon moaned that that unit growth projections for Chipzilla’s microprocessor sales for the latter half of this year were unrealistic, assuming current trends in personal computer sales. He wrote that Intel was betting not only on its “Core” family of mainstream PC processors, but also on new chips for mobile, such as the forthcoming “Bay Trail.“

“We believe the company has high hopes for their forthcoming Bay Trail quad-core Atom chip… We hope so too, as the company will need to sell huge amounts of them to achieve growth goals for the year,” he writes.

Intel announced on April that it expects revenue growth this year “in the low single digits,” after a decline of 5 per cent or so this quarter. But to do that, writes Rasgon, Intel needs to see shipment growth of 12 per cent to 20 per cent in PC microprocessors in the back half of the year.

He does not think that the atrocious PC results for the first quarter make it likely that this kind of growth could be driven by PCs. Even server microprocessors and mobile chips don’t seem likely to make up the difference, he writes. Mobile is just as unlikely as Intel will need to ship 20-50 million of the chips in the second half to make up the shortfall from traditional PCs.

Rasgon thinks Intel will make $53.82 billion in revenue this year, which would be a fraction of a percentage growth from last year’s $53.34 billion.

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